At COP28 it was emphasised to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030. “Results-based finance” is supposed to help achieving that goal.
Already on the 1st of December Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway will give at least 1 million NOK to Indonesia as results-based payment for the country’s achievements when it comes to reducing deforestation.
However, announcements like this (and more importantly their implementation) are rather the exception. For the most part, it remains unclear where the money required to halt deforestation will come from.
It is pointed out, e.g. by negotiators from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that in the case of result-based finance, there is no assurance that the finance provided afterwards actually corresponds to the substantial amount needed to achieve reduced deforestation.
Especially, in countries like DRC, which is home to the second-largest rainforests after the Amazon, holding more carbon than any other tropical forest due to the peatland beneath it, but also one of the poorest countries in the world, without any finance to start with it is difficult to halt or reverse prevalent forest destruction for agriculture, logging, mining, or charcoal production.
While it can be seen as an achievement that the goal of halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation has for the first time been stated in the COP text itself, also acknowledging the need for more investment, there is still a huge gap between the money needed to achieve the required transitions and the money that the rainforest nations receive.
If one was to capture the ecosystem services provided by e.g. the rainforest in the Congo basin (though it is debateable if that is feasible or desirable), just looking at carbon removed per year, we would arrive at a value of $55 billion (based on a social cost of carbon of $50 per metric ton).
Some money for ending deforestation, also in the Congo basin, was pledged on COP26 in Glasgow, however it never materialised in the affected countries.
Meanwhile, the rate of forest loss in the Congo basin increased by 5% in 2021, which corresponds to 1.2 million hectares of forest cover lost in that year (Global Forest Watch).
While it is essential to preserve the forest, this is not doable without providing the local communities with sufficient means of survival and alternative livelihoods. About 2/3 of DRC’s population live in poverty, with many of those adjacent to the forest practicing slash-and burn agriculture. Moreover, there is gold mining, logging for charcoal (for cooking or as source of income) or artisanal logging of valuable hardwoods. What is more, 64 million ha of the forests are threatened by oil and gas extraction as a promising way to generate money. Questions around governance and corruption present further obstacles.
Without any investments into sustainable development both reaching the country as a whole as well as the local population, the future of the world’s rainforests, particularly the one in the Congo basin, is in severe danger.

Sources: